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The ongoing war in Ukraine remains one of the most consequential geopolitical crises of our time—yet much of the Western conversation around it is shaped by narratives, moralistic rhetoric, and an unwillingness to confront uncomfortable truths. In this deep and analytical conversation, Professor Paul Robinson, a leading Russia scholar from the University of Ottawa with four decades of experience, breaks down the realities that mainstream media avoids.

This episode presents one of the clearest explanations of why the war continues, what is driving US, Russian, and European strategic thinking, and why a durable peace remains so difficult.

✅ Why Trump Wants the War to End Quickly

Prof. Robinson explains that Trump’s worldview—and that of people around him like JD Vance—is rooted in realism, not ideological battles like “democracy vs autocracy.” From this perspective:

  • Ukraine is not strategically important for the US

  • Russia is a nuclear superpower that America cannot afford to antagonize indefinitely

  • Ending the war allows the U.S. to shift focus toward China, which realists view as the main long-term challenge

Trump’s goal is clear: stop the killing, stabilize relations with Russia, and refocus American resources.

✅ Is the US Serious About Peace—or Just Buying Time?

Some analysts argue that Washington might want a “Minsk III”—a temporary ceasefire to rearm Ukraine.

Prof. Robinson disagrees for the US, but says Europe fits this description far more:

  • EU leaders continue advocating “fight until victory”

  • Aid to Ukraine is framed as moral duty, regardless of long-term consequences

  • Europe fears losing strategic influence more than Ukraine losing lives

The US, however, under Trump, appears genuinely motivated to end the war—not prolong it.

✅ Why a Ceasefire Is Unacceptable for Russia

Russia has repeatedly rejected the idea of an unconditional ceasefire. The reason is simple:

Every historical precedent—Minsk I & II, Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Croatia/Krajina—shows that:

👉 Ceasefires without final settlements are used to rearm and restart the war.

Russia insists on a permanent settlement, not a pause.

This is rooted in deep distrust—towards both Ukraine and the United States—because:

  • The US has walked away from major agreements (JCPOA, INF, climate treaties)

  • Ukraine openly states that it seeks to retake all its lost territories

  • Europe keeps promising more weapons, money, and troop commitments

For Moscow, a temporary deal = future war.

✅ Can Ukraine Continue Without US Support?

Many assume the war would collapse instantly if the US ended support. Robinson clarifies:

  • Ukraine produces nearly 50% of its own military needs (especially drones)

  • Europe supplies half of Ukraine’s heavy equipment

  • US withdrawal would hurt, but not cause immediate collapse

  • Ukraine would face gradual decline, not sudden defeat

However, long-range strikes—which depend heavily on US satellite targeting and intelligence—would weaken significantly.

✅ Europe’s Motivation: Fear, Identity, and Moralism

Why is Europe more aggressive than Washington?

Prof. Robinson highlights several factors:

1. Eastern European fear of Russia

Countries like Poland and the Baltic states feel existentially threatened.

2. Western European imperial mindset

France and Britain still view themselves as global actors—and Russia challenges that self-image.

3. Liberal moralism

European politics increasingly frames geopolitics as:

“Good vs Evil, Democracy vs Autocracy”

This reduces space for realism or negotiation.

4. Internal divisions

Spain, Italy, Portugal don’t share the same hostility toward Russia—but the EU moves by consensus, allowing more hawkish states to dominate the agenda.

✅ Why Europe Cannot Re-Arm the Way It Imagines

Europe is making grand claims about “war readiness”—but Robinson explains why it’s unrealistic:

  • Budgets are limited and voters prefer domestic spending

  • European armies are small and poorly equipped

  • There is no unified EU military or foreign policy

  • Countries distrust each other almost as much as they distrust Russia

  • Building “Fortress Europe” will take decades, not years

The rhetoric is strong—but the capability is weak.

✅ European or NATO Troops in Ukraine? A Dangerous Illusion

Some Western leaders, including UK PM Keir Starmer, have discussed sending European troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire.

Robinson points out the absurdity:

  • Russia would never agree to a ceasefire that brings NATO troops to its border

  • Ukraine could provoke new fighting to force Europe into the war

  • This gives Kyiv—not London or Paris—the power to trigger World War III

It is geopolitical fantasy dressed up as policy.

✅ What the US Really Wants: Splitting Russia from China?

One theory suggests Washington hopes peace with Russia will weaken the Russia–China strategic partnership.

Robinson explains why this won’t work:

  • Russia will never turn against China

  • China is Russia’s largest future economic partner

  • Iran is essential to Russia’s north-south trade routes

  • Moscow seeks good relations with all three—not alignment against one

At best, the US could prevent Russia and China from becoming too close—but not break them apart.

✅ The Irony: US Retrenchment May Weaken Its Own Power

As the US steps back:

  • Europe may drift toward China economically

  • BRICS continues to strengthen

  • Russia becomes more embedded in Asian markets

  • US influence globally is declining due to resource constraints

America is slowly recognizing the limits of its empire—but the transition is messy.

✅ Canada: Trump’s Surprising New Target

In an unexpected twist, Trump’s comments about Canada becoming “the 53rd state” triggered a national backlash:

  • Canadian flags everywhere

  • Growing resentment of US interference

  • Rising calls for Canada to reduce dependency on the US

While war is unlikely, economic tensions and realignment are very possible.

✅ Conclusion: A War That Could End—But Probably Won’t Soon

Prof. Robinson ends on a sobering point:

  • Both sides have maximalist goals

  • Neither can achieve those goals militarily

  • Mutual distrust is greater than at any time in the past 30 years

  • Diplomacy is weak, emotional, and moralistic

  • Europe is trapped in fantasy strategic thinking

  • The US is divided and unpredictable

Peace will require hard realism—not slogans.

Until then, the war is likely to continue, slowly grinding down Ukraine while reshaping global power structures.