Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban were once among the closest of allies, yet today their relationship is defined by rising tensions, cross-border strikes, and a terrorist insurgency that Islamabad cannot seem to convince Kabul to rein in. On this episode of the Kianistan Podcast, host Tafhim Kiani speaks with South Asia expert Michael Kugelman about why this once-vital partnership has soured, and what it means for the wider region.

Kugelman traces the shifting dynamic since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, explaining why the group no longer needs Pakistani support the way it once did during its insurgency, and why this loss of leverage has emboldened the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, a separate but closely allied group waging an escalating campaign of violence inside Pakistan.

The conversation digs into the ideological and historical ties binding the Afghan Taliban to the TTP, why Kabul has been unwilling to move decisively against its ally despite Pakistani pressure, and how Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISKP, fits into this increasingly complex militant landscape.

Kugelman also examines the deeper structural forces at play, from Pakistan’s need for access to Central Asia through Afghanistan, to China’s cautious approach to investment amid persistent security threats, to how a new US administration is likely to navigate this fraught regional triangle.

Key Topics Discussed

A Relationship Transformed Since the Taliban’s Return to Power

Kugelman explains how the balance of dependency between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban shifted dramatically after 2021.

• How Pakistan’s support was historically vital to the Taliban during its insurgency against US and NATO forces
• Why the end of the war in Afghanistan has deprived Pakistan of much of its former leverage over the Taliban
• The unresolved dispute over the Durand Line border, which no Afghan government, including the Taliban, has accepted
• How Pakistan’s border tensions with Afghanistan compound its separate tensions with India and Iran

The Rise and Resurgence of the TTP

The conversation traces the Pakistani Taliban’s history from its formation in 2007 through its resurgence after finding safe haven in Afghanistan.

• TTP’s brutal 2009-2014 campaign, including the Army Public School attack and the shooting of Malala Yousafzai
• The Pakistani military’s 2014 offensive that degraded TTP but pushed many fighters into Afghanistan
• TTP’s rebuilding and reunification of splinter factions after the Taliban’s 2021 return to power
• TTP’s current focus on targeting Pakistani security forces rather than civilians, in contrast to its earlier campaign

Why the Afghan Taliban Won’t Move Against the TTP

Kugelman explains the ideological, historical, and strategic reasons behind Kabul’s reluctance to curb TTP violence targeting Pakistan.

• Deep historical ties between TTP leadership and the Haqqani network, including TTP’s first leader
• The Taliban’s general reluctance to turn on longstanding allies, as seen in its continued tolerance of remaining Al-Qaeda elements
• Fear that a crackdown could provoke a violent TTP backlash and destabilize the Taliban’s own hard-won peace
• The Taliban’s limited facilitation efforts, including relocating some TTP fighters away from the immediate border

Distinguishing the Afghan Taliban from TTP and ISKP

The discussion unpacks the different ideological orientations and territorial ambitions distinguishing these three overlapping militant movements.

• The Afghan Taliban’s primarily localized, fundamentalist focus on governing Afghanistan itself
• TTP’s more globally oriented, ideological ambitions, including a foiled attack on Times Square
• ISKP as the only major militant group in the region not allied with the Afghan Taliban, formed by disaffected former Taliban members
• The Taliban’s sustained military campaign against ISKP, complicated by its limited air power capabilities

China’s Cautious Calculus in Afghanistan

Kugelman explains why China, despite deep investment in Pakistan, has moved slowly and carefully in Afghanistan itself.

• China’s persistent security concerns, including threats from ISKP and small Uyghur militant groups
• TTP’s own targeting of Chinese nationals and infrastructure in Pakistan, including in partnership with Baloch separatists
• A new Chinese oil exploration deal with the Taliban, announced only after a major counter-ISKP operation
• Why a significant attack on Chinese nationals could still set back the fragile China-Taliban relationship

Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Path Forward

The conversation closes with an assessment of the mutual economic dependency binding Pakistan and Afghanistan despite their tensions, and how a new US administration factors in.

• Afghanistan’s continued reliance on Pakistan for the large majority of its trade access
• Pakistan’s own interest in using Afghanistan as a gateway to expand connectivity with Central Asia
• India’s increasingly pragmatic engagement with the Afghan Taliban despite New Delhi’s rivalry with Islamabad
• Kugelman’s assessment that the Trump administration is unlikely to pressure Pakistan heavily, beyond encouraging reduced reliance on China

Major Takeaways

• The Afghan Taliban’s reduced reliance on Pakistan since 2021 has emboldened the TTP and weakened Islamabad’s leverage over Kabul.
• Deep historical and ideological ties, including links to the Haqqani network, explain why the Afghan Taliban has been unwilling to crack down on the TTP.
• TTP and the Afghan Taliban share a general ideological bond but differ sharply in scope, with TTP pursuing more explicitly global ambitions.
• ISKP remains the only major regional militant group not allied with the Afghan Taliban, and continues to pose a threat both regionally and internationally.
• China’s investment in Afghanistan remains cautious and security-dependent, even as it maintains deep economic ties with Pakistan through CPEC.
• Pakistan and Afghanistan remain economically interdependent despite rising tensions, with both sides needing continued trade and connectivity.

About Michael Kugelman

Michael Kugelman is a South Asia expert who has spent nearly two decades studying the politics, security dynamics, and international relations of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and the wider region.

His research and commentary focus on the complex interplay between regional security threats, great-power competition, and the domestic political dynamics shaping South Asia’s most consequential relationships.

• Pakistan-Afghanistan relations and the Taliban
• Terrorism and militancy in South Asia
• China-Pakistan economic and security ties
• US foreign policy toward South Asia

About Kianistan Podcast

Kianistan Podcast, hosted by Tafhim Kiani, is a geopolitics interview show committed to helping listeners understand the deep structural forces shaping South Asia’s most complex and consequential relationships.

By bringing on specialists with years of dedicated regional expertise, the show goes beyond daily headlines to explain not just what is happening between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but why these dynamics persist despite decades of shared history and interdependence.

This episode reflects that commitment, tracing how local militancy, regional rivalries, and global power competition all intersect in one of the world’s most volatile border regions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why has Pakistan lost leverage over the Afghan Taliban?

According to Michael Kugelman, the Taliban’s return to power in 2021 ended its need for Pakistani support during an active insurgency, significantly reducing Islamabad’s influence over Kabul’s decisions.

Why won’t the Afghan Taliban crack down on the TTP?

Kugelman points to deep ideological and historical ties, including TTP leaders’ past links to the Haqqani network, as well as fears that a crackdown could provoke a violent backlash and destabilize the Taliban’s own rule.

How is ISKP different from the Afghan Taliban and TTP?

ISKP is the only major militant group in the region not allied with the Afghan Taliban, having formed from disaffected former Taliban and Pakistani Taliban members, and the Afghan Taliban has waged sustained military operations against it.

Is China investing heavily in Afghanistan?

China has moved cautiously in Afghanistan due to persistent security concerns, though it has taken some steps, including a new oil exploration deal, after the Taliban demonstrated action against threats to Chinese nationals.

Conclusion

Michael Kugelman’s conversation on Kianistan Podcast offers a clear-eyed explanation for why one of the region’s most historically important alliances has grown so strained, even as both Pakistan and Afghanistan remain economically and geographically bound to one another.

As TTP violence continues and China weighs its own security concerns against long-term economic ambitions, Kugelman’s analysis provides essential context for understanding where this complex triangular relationship between Islamabad, Kabul, and Beijing may be headed next.

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