Professor Mark Juergensmeyer has spent a career studying religion, nationalism and political violence across South Asia and beyond, from years of fieldwork in India to decades on the faculty at UC Berkeley, a deanship at the University of Hawaii, and two decades at UC Santa Barbara. When he sat down with Kianistan Podcast, the conversation that had originally been planned around Palestine was overtaken by an even more urgent story: the stunningly rapid collapse of the Assad government in Syria, which had fallen just two weeks earlier.

Juergensmeyer draws a striking parallel between the Syrian army’s sudden disintegration and the collapse of the Afghan army when the Taliban swept into Kabul, arguing that once a government’s vulnerability becomes visible, collapse can happen with startling speed. He walks through the web of factors that left Bashar al-Assad isolated, from Hezbollah and Russia being weakened elsewhere to Iran’s own strategic overreach.

The conversation moves through the uncertain future facing Syria’s new interim leadership under al-Julani, the precarious position of the Kurds as Trump prepares to take office, and the deeper global pattern Juergensmeyer sees at work: a resurgence of authoritarian nationalism intertwined with what he calls the ‘religionization of politics’, playing out from Damascus to Delhi to Washington.

Drawing on decades of research into religious violence, including a memorable and unsettling encounter with a Buddhist monk in Myanmar who justified attacks on the Rohingya, Juergensmeyer offers a sobering but ultimately hopeful framework for understanding why national and religious identities are hardening across the globe at precisely the same historical moment.

Key Topics Discussed

The Lightning Collapse of the Assad Government

Juergensmeyer unpacks why a government that had survived thirteen years of civil war fell within two weeks, and draws a direct comparison to Afghanistan.

• He compares the collapse directly to the Taliban’s sweep into Kabul, noting that once soldiers sense their government is losing, they are unlikely to be the last ones standing and fighting.
• Juergensmeyer attributes Assad’s isolation to the simultaneous weakening of his main supporters: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, and Iran’s broader regional setbacks.
• He notes the striking detail that Assad reportedly did not invite direct Iranian or Russian ground support before his army’s retreat began.
• Al-Julani’s HTS forces, having ruled Idlib province for years, showed some capacity for economic administration, though Juergensmeyer flags a clear authoritarian streak in how the territory was governed.
• He observes the surreal spectacle of a UN-designated terrorist leader with a ten-million-dollar US bounty on his head being interviewed by CNN within days of taking power.

What Comes Next for Syria’s Governance

Drawing on his own experience of Iraq’s post-invasion political transition, Juergensmeyer offers a cautious forecast for how power will likely consolidate in Syria.

• He predicts Syrian politics will rapidly organise along religious and ethnic lines, just as he witnessed happen in Iraq after 2003, since sectarian identity is the fastest available basis for political mobilisation.
• Juergensmeyer expects the new government to lean toward a more authoritarian style of rule rather than genuine democracy, partly for the sake of holding the country together.
• He notes al-Julani has made conciliatory gestures toward minority communities, including Christians, Alawites and Druze, and has said he will not dictate what women must wear.
• The interim administration, led by al-Bashir, is expected to govern only through March before a transition toward a more stable coalition and eventual elections.
• Juergensmeyer flags Islamic State’s continued presence in eastern Syria, including a recent bombing in Homs, as a major unresolved security threat for the new government.

The Kurds, Turkey and an Uncertain American Commitment

The conversation turns to the precarious position of Kurdish forces as competing regional and American interests collide.

• Juergensmeyer recalls Trump’s first-term willingness to abruptly withdraw support from Kurdish allies via a single phone call, and expects a similar dynamic under his second term.
• He notes roughly 900 US troops remain in the region, officially to prevent an Islamic State resurgence and guard detention facilities holding captured fighters.
• Juergensmeyer warns that if US or Kurdish support for those prisons collapses, escaped Islamic State fighters could pose a renewed and serious threat to the new Syrian government.
• He describes Kurdish-held territory as sitting on significant oil wealth, complicating any path toward genuine Kurdish independence.
• Juergensmeyer expects Israel to continue expanding its buffer zone in southern Syria, noting al-Julani’s own family origins in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights add a bitter irony to the situation.

Winners, Losers and the Regional Balance of Power

Juergensmeyer assesses how Assad’s fall reshuffles the fortunes of Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the wider region.

• He calls the loss ‘catastrophic’ for Iran, which has lost its overland arc of influence stretching through Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• For Russia, he assesses it as a significant blow, particularly the loss of its main Mediterranean access point and military infrastructure, though less severe than Iran’s loss given Russia’s primary focus remains Ukraine.
• Juergensmeyer notes Gulf states like Saudi Arabia appear to be watching and waiting, wary of the Muslim Brotherhood-linked currents behind HTS just as they were wary of Egypt’s brief Brotherhood government.
• He suggests Israel and Iran are unlikely to see the shifting balance draw Iran and Russia meaningfully further apart, describing Putin as fundamentally transactional in his alliances.
• Juergensmeyer sees Palestine as arguably the biggest loser of all, predicting Trump will give Netanyahu’s government a freer hand, potentially reviving a ‘Bantustan’-style vision for the West Bank.

Trump’s Second Term and the Global Rise of Authoritarian Autocrats

Juergensmeyer widens the lens to consider how Trump’s return will interact with a broader global drift toward authoritarian nationalism.

• He predicts Trump’s central challenge will be balancing the competing national interests of the various autocrats he hopes to befriend, from Erdogan to Putin to Xi.
• Juergensmeyer expects tariff policy to trigger inflation and a damaging trade war with China if pursued seriously.
• He is sceptical that Trump’s rapport with Putin will hold indefinitely, and expects a negotiated partition of Ukraine along contested lines.
• Juergensmeyer situates Syria within two broader global trends he has spent his career studying: the rise of authoritarian nationalism as a reaction to globalisation, and the ‘religionization of politics’ as a response to eroding traditional national identities.
• He draws a vivid parallel to his own fieldwork in Myanmar, recalling a Buddhist monk who justified violence against the Rohingya minority using the same ‘threatened majority’ logic now visible from India to the United States.

Why Political and Religious Divisions Are Widening Everywhere

Juergensmeyer offers his broader theory for why societies from Pakistan to America increasingly see political opponents as existential enemies rather than fellow citizens.

• He argues globalisation has eroded the traditional basis for national identity, prompting a defensive resurgence of religious and nationalist identity as a substitute source of belonging.
• Juergensmeyer connects this to India’s Hindu nationalist government marginalising its Muslim minority and rewriting historical narratives, a pattern he sees echoed in China’s treatment of the Uyghurs.
• He notes the same dynamic within American Christianity, where he says extremist Christian nationalism has effectively displaced more traditional, socially engaged forms of the faith.
• Juergensmeyer identifies round-the-clock partisan media and social media echo chambers as accelerants that make political opponents feel like existential threats rather than fellow citizens.
• Despite his sobering analysis, he describes himself as a ‘realistic pessimistic optimist’, holding out hope that humanity can eventually organise itself as a genuine global community.

Major Takeaways

• The Syrian army’s collapse mirrors Afghanistan’s: once soldiers sense defeat is inevitable, resistance evaporates rapidly regardless of formal military strength.
• Syria’s new government is likely to consolidate along sectarian and authoritarian lines, following the same pattern Juergensmeyer witnessed firsthand in post-2003 Iraq.
• Iran suffers the most catastrophic strategic loss from Assad’s fall, though Russia’s setback, chiefly its loss of Mediterranean access, is also significant.
• The Kurds face a precarious future as Trump’s transactional approach to alliances raises real risk of abandonment, despite their central role in containing Islamic State.
• Juergensmeyer situates Syria’s collapse within two sweeping global trends: a resurgence of authoritarian nationalism and the ‘religionization of politics’ as responses to globalisation’s erosion of traditional identity.
• Despite the bleak near-term outlook, Juergensmeyer maintains cautious long-term optimism about humanity’s capacity to build genuine global cooperation.

About Professor Mark Juergensmeyer

Professor Mark Juergensmeyer is a scholar of political science and religion whose career has focused on the intersection of religious nationalism and political violence, with a particular emphasis on South Asia. He spent some fifteen years on the faculty at the University of California, Berkeley, later served as a dean at the University of Hawaii, and spent roughly two decades at the University of California, Santa Barbara, where he continues to teach and mentor graduate students.

His research draws on extensive fieldwork across India, Pakistan and beyond, and includes direct engagement with figures at the centre of religious violence movements worldwide. His areas of expertise include:

• Religious nationalism and political violence in South Asia
• The intersection of religion, identity and authoritarian politics globally
• Comparative analysis of state collapse and political transition
• The role of religion in shaping national identity amid globalisation

About Kianistan Podcast

Kianistan Podcast brings listeners conversations with scholars and analysts whose expertise runs deeper than the news cycle, pairing rapidly unfolding events with the kind of long-view academic grounding needed to make sense of them. Host Tafhim Kiani seeks out guests capable of connecting today’s headlines to the broader historical and theoretical patterns behind them.

This conversation with Professor Mark Juergensmeyer, recorded in the immediate aftermath of Assad’s fall, exemplifies that approach, using decades of comparative research into religious nationalism and political violence to make sense of a fast-moving and uncertain moment in Syrian and global politics. Kianistan Podcast remains committed to giving listeners the analytical depth that breaking news coverage rarely has time to provide.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Professor Mark Juergensmeyer?

Mark Juergensmeyer is a political scientist and scholar of religion who has spent his career studying religious nationalism and political violence, with faculty positions at UC Berkeley, a deanship at the University of Hawaii, and roughly two decades at UC Santa Barbara.

Why did the Syrian army collapse so quickly in December 2024?

Juergensmeyer compares it to the Taliban’s sweep into Kabul, arguing that once soldiers sensed the government was losing, they were unwilling to be the last ones fighting, especially with Hezbollah, Russia and Iran all simultaneously weakened.

What does Juergensmeyer predict for Syria’s new government?

He expects Syrian politics to organise along sectarian and ethnic lines, similar to post-2003 Iraq, with a governing style that leans more authoritarian than democratic, at least in the near term, while still offering some protections to minority communities.

What is the ‘religionization of politics’ Juergensmeyer describes?

It refers to his theory that as globalisation erodes traditional, geography-based national identities, religion increasingly steps in to answer the question of collective identity, often in ways that marginalise minority faiths and fuel authoritarian nationalism worldwide.

Conclusion

Professor Mark Juergensmeyer’s conversation with Kianistan Podcast offers a rare combination of immediate crisis analysis and decades of comparative scholarship, connecting Syria’s sudden transformation to patterns he has traced from Iraq to Myanmar to India. His forecast for Syria, a likely drift toward sectarian, authoritarian governance, echoes lessons learned across multiple post-conflict transitions he has studied firsthand.

Perhaps most valuable is Juergensmeyer’s insistence on situating Syria within the two much larger global currents of authoritarian nationalism and religious identity politics, currents he argues are reshaping societies from Washington to New Delhi to Yangon. Even as he offers a clear-eyed and often sobering assessment, his closing note of cautious optimism about humanity’s capacity for global cooperation leaves listeners with a measured sense of hope amid deep uncertainty.

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