Recorded on the morning after Donald Trump’s decisive 2024 election victory, this conversation reunites host Tafhim Kiani with Professor Eric Kaufmann, his former professor at Birkbeck College, University of London, and one of the world’s leading scholars of political demography, nationalism and the politics of identity. Kaufmann, author of the influential 2018 book White Shift, offers a wide-ranging framework for understanding not just Trump’s victory but the global populist wave reshaping politics across the Western world.

Kaufmann traces the roots of national populism to demographic and ethnic anxiety within majority populations, while carefully explaining why growing numbers of minority voters, including a significant share of Hispanic Americans, are also gravitating toward right-wing populist parties. The conversation moves through declining birth rates across the developed world, the cultural and religious factors driving fertility differences between nations, and the difficult tradeoffs facing societies as they age.

The discussion takes a sharp turn into the ideological forces Kaufmann believes are equally responsible for today’s polarised politics: the evolution of left liberalism into what he calls ‘woke’ ideology, its downstream effects on crime, policing and immigration enforcement, and the deep psychological roots of the divide between those who embrace diversity and change and those who experience it as loss.

Kaufmann closes with a careful, nuanced discussion of how these same ideological currents, particularly settler-colonial framing borrowed from critical race theory, have shaped how a significant number of young, left-leaning Americans understand the Israel-Palestine conflict, before offering his assessment of Ukraine’s uncertain demographic and political future.

Key Topics Discussed

White Shift and the Demographic Roots of National Populism

Kaufmann lays out the central argument of his influential book and explains why it feels newly relevant on the morning after Trump’s re-election.

• Kaufmann explains his central thesis: rising national populism in Western countries is primarily driven by immigration and ethnic change, which trigger anxiety within ethnic majority populations.
• He notes a significant and often overlooked pattern in the 2024 election: substantial Hispanic support for Trump, which he explains through minorities’ own attachment to a national identity they perceive as under threat.
• Kaufmann describes the second half of his book as more speculative, projecting the eventual emergence of mixed-race majority groups that absorb and continue elements of the historic white majority identity.
• He traces the populist wave through multiple phases: an initial surge around 2014-2017, a lull during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, and a renewed surge driven by a post-pandemic spike in immigration across multiple countries.
• Kaufmann notes he did not predict Trump’s 2024 victory, attributing significant polling error to systematic under-sampling of certain voter characteristics.

The Demographic Cliff: Fertility Decline and Its Consequences

Kaufmann explains the causes and consequences of falling birth rates across the developed world.

• He explains that virtually all developed countries, with rare exceptions like Israel, now fall below the 2.1 total fertility rate needed to maintain population levels without immigration.
• Kaufmann identifies population aging and rising old-age dependency ratios as major drivers of increased government spending on healthcare and pensions, slowing economic growth.
• He identifies religiosity as the single most significant predictor of fertility differences within countries, noting that regularly practising members of Abrahamic faiths tend toward replacement-level birth rates.
• Kaufmann describes a ‘curve of patriarchy’ explaining fertility patterns: highly patriarchal societies and highly egalitarian societies both tend toward higher birth rates than ‘semi-patriarchal’ societies where women have rights but face strong social pressure not to work after marriage.
• He notes government incentive programs, such as South Korea’s efforts, tend to produce only modest, temporary boosts to fertility rather than sustained structural change.

Immigration, Assimilation and the Populist Backlash

Kaufmann examines the tension between the need for immigration and public resistance to rapid demographic change.

• Kaufmann explains that societies broadly face a choice between the East Asian model of low immigration and gradual population shrinkage, or the Australian and North American model of continued growth through diversification.
• He argues immigration only delays rather than solves the aging crisis, since most global migrant-sending regions themselves now have below-replacement fertility rates.
• Kaufmann distinguishes genuine assimilation, involving intermarriage and identity change, from mere integration into the labour market or civic participation, noting assimilation occurs organically over generations and cannot be accelerated by policy.
• He notes that even Muslim immigrants to Europe experience declining birth rates as they assimilate, directly contradicting viral claims from a widely-circulated 2009 video predicting demographic Islamic takeover.
• Kaufmann argues the core policy question populist movements are raising is whether societies should accept a less labour-intensive economy with lower immigration, an option he says has not genuinely been offered to voters.

The Evolution of Woke Ideology and Its Political Consequences

Kaufmann traces how post-civil rights era left liberalism evolved into a more radicalised ideological movement with significant downstream political effects.

• Kaufmann traces the ideological roots of ‘woke’ politics to the 1960s civil rights era, describing it as a radicalised evolution of earlier left liberal commitments to equality and anti-discrimination.
• He argues this shift prioritises sensitivity over truth and free speech, citing examples ranging from residential school controversies in Canada to disputes over historical narratives like the 1619 Project.
• Kaufmann connects the ‘defund the police’ movement following George Floyd’s killing to a subsequent crime wave, arguing this dynamic significantly damaged Democratic electoral prospects.
• He describes cancel culture as rooted in a form of moral absolutism, treating certain historically marginalised identity groups as sacred in ways that transform political disagreement into questions of good and evil.
• Kaufmann distinguishes this ideological polarisation from demographic change itself, arguing the two are related but analytically separate forces, noting the same identity-based conflicts would likely emerge even in a hypothetically homogeneous society.

Settler-Colonial Framing and Its Influence on Israel-Palestine Discourse

Kaufmann examines how critical race theory’s oppressor-oppressed framework has shaped younger progressive views of the Middle East conflict.

• Kaufmann explains how a ‘settler colonial’ worldview, drawn from critical race theory’s oppressor-versus-oppressed framework, has been extended by some young progressives to view Israel-Palestine through a similar lens, with Jews cast as settlers and Palestinians cast as indigenous people of colour.
• He cites survey data showing roughly 70 percent of young Americans believe native peoples lived in complete peace and harmony before European arrival, illustrating the broader romanticised historical framework underlying this worldview.
• Kaufmann is careful to note he is not defending Israeli settlement policy, while arguing this ideological lens has not yet meaningfully shifted actual US foreign policy toward the Middle East.
• He assesses these ideological tensions as currently playing out more within American and Western domestic discourse than translating into substantive foreign policy change.
• Kaufmann suggests this dynamic may evolve over the coming decades as those holding these views eventually enter positions of greater institutional influence.

Ukraine’s Demographic Future and the Psychology of Polarisation

The conversation closes with Kaufmann’s assessment of Ukraine’s demographic trajectory and his broader theory of what drives political polarisation worldwide.

• Kaufmann predicts lasting social tension in Ukraine between those who stayed and fought and those who left for the West, particularly among younger men who avoided conscription.
• He assesses Ukraine’s population as likely to stabilise at a smaller size even after any eventual settlement, given both wartime losses and long-term low fertility.
• Kaufmann roots political polarisation in psychological differences: some people experience demographic and cultural change as loss, while a smaller, more educated, more institutionally powerful group experiences it as exciting and positive.
• He cites experimental research on visual pattern preferences, orderly versus random arrangements, as a striking predictor of political orientation, suggesting the divide has genetic as well as cultural roots.
• Kaufmann closes by distinguishing this psychological divide from the separate, ideologically driven radicalisation of ‘woke’ politics, arguing both forces are compounding to deepen polarisation across Western societies simultaneously.

Major Takeaways

• Kaufmann’s White Shift thesis holds that national populism is driven primarily by immigration-driven ethnic anxiety, a pattern now extending to some minority voters themselves, as seen in 2024 Hispanic support for Trump.
• Virtually all developed nations now face below-replacement fertility, with religiosity emerging as the single strongest predictor of fertility differences within societies.
• Immigration only delays rather than solves demographic aging, since most migrant-sending regions themselves now have below-replacement fertility.
• Kaufmann traces ‘woke’ ideology’s roots to 1960s civil rights-era left liberalism, arguing its downstream effects on policing and immigration enforcement significantly shaped the 2024 election outcome.
• A ‘settler colonial’ worldview drawn from critical race theory has shaped how many young progressives view the Israel-Palestine conflict, though Kaufmann assesses this as not yet significantly shifting actual US foreign policy.
• Political polarisation, in Kaufmann’s analysis, stems from a genuine psychological divide over whether change represents loss or opportunity, a divide he says is distinct from, but compounding, ideological radicalisation.

About Professor Eric Kaufmann

Professor Eric Kaufmann is a leading scholar of political demography, nationalism and the intersection of culture and politics, and the author of the influential 2018 book White Shift, which examines the demographic drivers of national populism across Western democracies. His earlier work includes Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth, examining the role of religiosity in global fertility patterns.

A former professor at Birkbeck College, University of London, Kaufmann’s research and public commentary span:

• The demographic and ethnic drivers of national populism
• Global fertility decline and its political and economic consequences
• The evolution of left liberalism into contemporary ‘woke’ ideology
• Immigration policy, assimilation and cultural change in Western democracies
• The psychological and ideological roots of political polarisation

About Kianistan Podcast

Kianistan Podcast, hosted by Tafhim Kiani, brings listeners conversations that connect breaking political events to the deeper academic frameworks needed to understand them. The show places particular value on guests capable of explaining complex social and demographic trends with both scholarly rigour and real-world clarity.

This conversation with Professor Eric Kaufmann, recorded the morning after Trump’s 2024 re-election and reuniting host and former student, exemplifies that mission, using decades of research into demography, nationalism and ideology to make sense of a pivotal moment in Western politics. Kianistan Podcast remains committed to giving listeners the analytical depth needed to look past the headlines toward the underlying forces shaping global political change.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Professor Eric Kaufmann?

Eric Kaufmann is a scholar of political demography and nationalism, formerly a professor at Birkbeck College, University of London, and the author of the influential 2018 book White Shift, which examines the demographic drivers of Western national populism.

What is the central argument of Kaufmann’s book White Shift?

Kaufmann argues that rising national populism across Western countries is primarily driven by immigration-fuelled ethnic and demographic change, which triggers anxiety within ethnic majority populations and, increasingly, among some minority voters attached to a shared national identity.

What does Kaufmann say about declining birth rates globally?

Kaufmann explains that virtually all developed nations now fall below the 2.1 replacement fertility rate, with religiosity emerging as the single strongest predictor of fertility differences, and warns that immigration only delays rather than solves the resulting aging crisis.

How does Kaufmann connect ‘woke’ ideology to the 2024 US election?

Kaufmann traces ‘woke’ ideology’s roots to 1960s civil rights-era left liberalism, arguing its downstream effects, including reduced border enforcement and the ‘defund the police’ movement following George Floyd’s killing, significantly damaged Democratic electoral prospects in 2024.

Conclusion

Professor Eric Kaufmann’s conversation with Kianistan Podcast offers a rigorous, wide-ranging framework for understanding the demographic and ideological forces reshaping Western politics, from declining fertility rates to the evolution of left liberalism into contemporary identity politics. His careful distinction between genuine demographic anxiety and separate ideological radicalisation provides listeners with a nuanced alternative to simpler explanations of the populist wave.

Perhaps most striking is Kaufmann’s willingness to trace these same ideological currents into how younger progressives understand the Israel-Palestine conflict, offering listeners a sophisticated lens for understanding generational shifts in Middle East discourse without reducing the analysis to simple political tribalism. As Western democracies continue grappling with immigration, fertility decline and deepening polarisation, Kaufmann’s decades of research offer an essential analytical toolkit for making sense of what comes next.

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