Diplomatic activity, a shifting political map in Europe and a global fuel shortage are all shaping the war in Ukraine. In this Kianistan Podcast episode, host Tafhim Kiani brings back a favourite guest, Dr. Vladimir Brovkin, a Russian-born American historian of Soviet and Russian politics who previously taught at Harvard and now runs his own YouTube channel.

The episode starts with the AfD’s results in Saxony-Anhalt and what they could mean for Germany and for European policy toward Russia. Brovkin explains why he thinks German politics is more fluid than many assume, and why suppression of the AfD could backfire.

From there the two discuss France, the Anchorage summit, the visit of Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow, Russia’s new drone and missile strategy, possible leadership change in Kyiv and the role of the Iran war.

They also look at the SCO and BRICS summits and why Brovkin believes Russia’s turn toward Asia is long-term. These are Brovkin’s own analyses and predictions.

Key Topics Discussed

AfD, the German Establishment and Europe’s Russia Policy

Brovkin discusses the AfD results and whether Germany’s policy on Russia could change.

• He says German parties have repeatedly changed positions, citing the Greens’ shift from pacifism to supporting rearmament.
• He explains why the AfD appeals to businesses concerned about energy prices and to voters tired of funding a long war.
• He claims Putin said Russia would resume gas sales if Germany changed its approach, noting the price of gas is about ten times higher than before the war.
• He warns that trying to suppress a party with around 40% support could risk unrest, and says a CDU policy change is also possible.

France, Le Pen and Macron’s Unpopularity

The host asks how the German results are affecting French politics.

• Brovkin describes France as a centralised presidential republic, unlike federal Germany.
• He says both the left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the right of Marine Le Pen favour more normal relations with Russia.
• He says Macron is deeply unpopular, particularly for sidelining parliament, and expects a Mélenchon or Le Pen result next time.

Anchorage, Witkoff, Kushner and the Peace Process

Brovkin gives his reading of what was agreed at Anchorage and why progress stalled.

• He says, citing Lavrov, that Trump and Putin agreed Ukraine would stay out of NATO, Donetsk and Luhansk would go to Russia, and the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson lines would be frozen.
• He says Julia Mendel claimed peace could have been signed last September before European leaders pressured Trump.
• He believes Trump wants to appear tough through sanctions while still negotiating, because of congressional opposition.
• He describes Putin’s proposal for a transitional UN-style administration in Ukraine to hold legitimate elections, and the obstacles to it.

Russia’s New Military Strategy

The host asks why Russia is now striking bridges, rails and factories it avoided before.

• Brovkin points to newer Geran drones with autonomous navigation and wider satellite coverage.
• He says bridges are hard targets that require precision, and that two bridges toward Romania were reportedly destroyed recently.
• He thinks Moscow lost hope in a deal with Trump and is alarmed by Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia.
• He argues Russia now aims to destroy Ukraine’s industrial capacity, and expects Donetsk to fall by the end of 2026, with Odesa and Kharkiv next.

Ukraine’s Leadership, NATO and the Iran War

The two discuss the prospect of Zelensky being removed and how the Iran conflict affects Western options.

• Brovkin predicts Zelensky could be removed by his own generals or associates as the war grows hopeless.
• He calls retired British generals’ talk of defeating Russia ‘pathetic’ and says NATO cannot match Russian production.
• He describes the Iran war as unwinnable for the US and suggests some Republicans may consider removing Trump through the cabinet.
• The host notes Yemen’s closure of Bab al-Mandab and pressure on Saudi Arabia, saying the war cannot continue indefinitely.

SCO, BRICS and Russia’s Eurasian Turn

The final section looks at Putin’s diplomacy with India and China and Russia’s long-term orientation.

• Brovkin says Putin tries to balance India and China and keep Russia, India and China cooperating within BRICS.
• He sees the BRICS summit in India as historic and as a sign the Global South is becoming a centre of gravity.
• He says wounds from the West run too deep for reconciliation, even if relations with Germany improve.
• He traces Russia’s Eurasian identity to Mongol-era ties and to thinkers such as Alexander Dugin, and the host proposes a future episode on Dugin.

Major Takeaways

• Brovkin argues German politics is flexible and that either a CDU shift or an AfD rise could change European policy toward Russia.
• He says suppressing the AfD risks serious social unrest.
• He believes the Anchorage understandings collapsed after European leaders pressured Trump, and that Moscow no longer trusts a deal.
• He argues new drones and satellites let Russia hit logistics and industry in ways it could not before.
• He expects continued Russian advances in 2026 and predicts political upheaval in Kyiv.
• He sees Russia’s turn toward Asia and the Global South as a lasting, long-term shift.

About Dr. Vladimir Brovkin

Dr. Vladimir Brovkin is a Russian-born American historian of Soviet and Russian politics who has taught at Harvard University. He now lives in France and runs a YouTube channel discussing Russian politics and the war in Ukraine.

He is a returning guest on Kianistan Podcast, where he has previously argued that European policy toward Russia will change only when new political forces replace the current establishment.

• Soviet and Russian political history
• The war in Ukraine and Russian strategy
• European politics, Germany and France
• BRICS and Eurasian geopolitics
• Russian identity and Eurasianism

About Kianistan Podcast

Kianistan Podcast, hosted by Tafhim Kiani, is built on long, thoughtful conversations with historians, journalists and analysts about wars and shifting power. The goal is to give audiences background that mainstream coverage tends to leave out.

Brovkin is among the show’s most-requested returning guests. If you enjoy these discussions, subscribe to both channels and use the comments to tell us who and what to cover next.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Dr. Vladimir Brovkin?

He is a Russian-born American historian of Soviet and Russian politics, formerly at Harvard, who runs a YouTube channel on Russia and the Ukraine war.

What does Brovkin say about the AfD?

He says the AfD’s growth is a significant trend, that its voters are driven by energy prices and war fatigue, and that suppressing it could cause unrest in Germany.

What does Brovkin say was agreed at Anchorage?

Citing Foreign Minister Lavrov, he says Ukraine would stay out of NATO, Donetsk and Luhansk would go to Russia, and other front lines would be frozen, but European pressure stalled the deal.

Why is Russia now hitting Ukraine’s infrastructure?

Brovkin points to better drones and navigation, loss of faith in a deal with Trump, and concern over Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, which he says led Moscow to target industry and logistics.

Conclusion

Brovkin offers a detailed and strongly argued reading of the war’s current phase, linking German politics, US-Russia talks and Russian military changes. His predictions are his own and should be weighed alongside other analysts.

The episode shows how Ukraine, Iran, European politics and BRICS are interconnected. Watch the full conversation and share your thoughts in the comments, and tell us if you want a follow-up on Alexander Dugin.

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