Introduction

In this thought-provoking conversation, Professor Eric Kaufmann, a leading scholar of political demography and nationalism, delves deep into the ideological shifts in Western institutions, the rise of populism, and how demographic changes and immigration policies shape contemporary politics. Kaufmann, who taught at Birkbeck College, University of London, reunites with a former student to reflect on these major themes, including the implications of low fertility rates and the backlash against cultural liberalism.

From Campus to Media: The Rise of Left-Liberal Orthodoxy

Kaufmann begins by analyzing how left-liberal ideologies, once confined to academia, have permeated media and public institutions. He references the Pulitzer Prize awarded to Nikole Hannah-Jones for the 1619 Project, criticizing its historical claims and attributing its acceptance to identity politics. According to Kaufmann, the reluctance to question such narratives has led to cultural excesses that partly fueled populist sentiments, especially among those disenchanted with movements like Black Lives Matter.

White Shift and the Roots of Populism

In his seminal book Whiteshift, Kaufmann outlines how demographic and cultural changes have driven the populist wave. He argues that immigration and shifting ethnic compositions have triggered anxiety among ethnic majorities, catalyzing support for right-wing populist leaders like Donald Trump. Notably, Kaufmann highlights how even minority groups, when aligned with a national identity perceived as under threat, may support populist candidates.

The Return of Populism Post-Pandemic

While populism dipped during the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict, Kaufmann notes its resurgence due to post-pandemic immigration spikes in countries like Canada, the UK, and the US. He emphasizes that this new wave reflects the same cultural and demographic undercurrents seen in earlier populist movements.

Why Polls Miss Populist Victories

Kaufmann critiques modern polling, arguing that systematic underrepresentation and non-response biases often lead to polling errors, particularly in close elections. These flaws contribute to unexpected outcomes, like Trump’s repeat electoral success, which polls consistently underestimate.

Immigration as the Central Western Political Issue

According to Kaufmann, immigration is the defining issue for populist movements in Western countries. Unlike populism in Latin America or the Middle East, which may be driven by economic mismanagement or religion, Western populism hinges on perceived threats to national identity due to demographic changes.

Declining Fertility Rates and Societal Impact

Addressing the broader demographic landscape, Kaufmann discusses the decline in total fertility rates (TFR) across developed nations. Most are well below the replacement rate of 2.1, with some like South Korea and parts of China nearing a TFR of 1. This aging population results in higher dependency ratios, increased healthcare and pension costs, and slower economic growth. To offset this, governments and industries push for increased immigration, further intensifying public debates.

The Immigration Dilemma: Shrink or Diversify

Countries face a critical choice: emulate East Asia by restricting immigration and accepting population decline, or follow North America and Australia’s model of growth through diversity. Europe remains somewhere in between. These decisions, Kaufmann argues, directly impact political stability, as large portions of the electorate oppose rapid demographic shifts and vote accordingly.

Conclusion

Professor Eric Kaufmann’s insights underscore the intricate connections between demography, culture, and politics. As Western societies grapple with aging populations and growing diversity, the tension between change and continuity becomes central to understanding political polarization. Whether countries choose to embrace diversity or resist it will shape the future of democracy and identity in the 21st century.

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Tags: #politicaldemography, #populism, #immigration, #whiteshift, #erickaufmann, #westernpolitics, #culturewars, #nationalidentity, #lowfertility, #birkbeckcollege