Professor Jamal Wakim of the Lebanese University in Beirut returns to the Kianistan Podcast for another wide-ranging conversation with host Tafhim Kiani, this time focused on Israel’s escalating pressure on Lebanon and Hezbollah in the shadow of the ongoing Iran-US war. Wakim, a historian and geopolitical analyst, argues that Israel is using the wider regional crisis as cover to pursue a long-standing goal: disarming Hezbollah and, ultimately, redrawing the map of the Levant.

He lays out what he sees as a deliberate plan to expel the Shia population of South Lebanon in order to pursue annexation — a plan complicated by Lebanon’s fractured confessional politics, where a US- and Saudi-aligned government leadership coexists uneasily with a population, across Shia, Sunni, and Christian communities alike, that Wakim says broadly supports the resistance.

The conversation moves outward from Lebanon to the wider region: Saudi Arabia’s lack of genuine sovereignty as a state installed by the British and later backed by the Americans, the NATO summit in Ankara that dangled a Central Asian role for Turkey — echoes of Pan-Turanism and the Zangezur corridor — in exchange for European support against Iran, and Saudi strikes on the Houthis and on Kata’ib Hezbollah inside Iraq.

Wakim also offers a striking prediction: that Trump will wait until after the November midterm elections to restart the Iran war in earnest, to avoid the economic fallout of an oil price spike before Americans vote — a delay that could give Iran and its allies room to prepare, even as the humanitarian toll in Lebanon and Yemen continues to mount.

Key Topics Discussed

Israel’s Escalation Against Lebanon Under Cover of the Iran War

Wakim describes a pattern of intensifying Israeli action against Lebanon that he says is using the broader regional crisis as political cover.

• He points to ongoing Israeli strikes and what he characterizes as massacres inside Lebanon.
• The core objective, in his analysis, is disarming Hezbollah as part of a broader Levant balkanization strategy.
• He argues the Iran-US war has provided diplomatic cover that reduces international scrutiny of these actions.

The Plan to Depopulate South Lebanon

Wakim describes what he sees as a deliberate strategy targeting South Lebanon’s Shia population.

• He alleges a plan aimed at expelling South Lebanon’s Shia population as a precursor to annexation.
• This sits within a longer-running pattern of proposals to redraw borders across the Levant.
• He connects this strategy to broader Israeli and American interests in reshaping the regional map.

Lebanon’s Confessional Divide and Popular Support for the Resistance

Lebanon’s fractured political system complicates any unified national response.

• Lebanon’s government leadership is broadly aligned with US and Saudi interests, in Wakim’s assessment.
• He argues that majority-Shia, majority-Sunni, and majority-Christian populations alike are broadly supportive of the resistance, despite the government’s alignment.
• This gap between governing elites and popular sentiment, he says, shapes how Lebanon is likely to respond to continued pressure.

Saudi Sovereignty, NATO’s Ankara Summit, and Pan-Turanism

The discussion widens to Saudi Arabia’s political origins and a consequential NATO summit.

• Wakim describes Saudi Arabia as a state that has never held true sovereignty, first installed by the British and later backed by the Americans.
• A NATO summit in Ankara reportedly promised Turkey a role in Central Asia, invoking Pan-Turanist ambitions and the Zangezur corridor.
• In exchange, Turkey is expected to offer European support against Iran and expanded backing for Ukraine.

Saudi Strikes on the Houthis and Kata’ib Hezbollah

Saudi Arabia has widened its own military footprint in this period.

• Wakim notes Saudi attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen during this window.
• He also points to Saudi action against Kata’ib Hezbollah inside Iraq.
• He predicts Trump will wait until after the November midterms to restart the Iran war, to avoid pre-election economic fallout from an oil price spike.

Eurasian Alignment and Europe’s Domestic Political Currents

Wakim closes with a look at the broader strategic picture and European politics.

• He describes a Russia-China-Iran ‘Eurasian’ alignment built on economic depth, geopolitical weight, and military shielding respectively.
• He discusses Egypt’s refusal to join the Makkah Agreement, protecting its own interests and wary of Turkish-backed Islamist groups regionally.
• On Germany’s AfD election results, he predicts the deep state will block any real shift toward Russia regardless of the party’s gains, with a similar dynamic likely in France.

Major Takeaways

• Jamal Wakim argues Israel is using the Iran-US war as cover to escalate pressure on Lebanon and pursue Hezbollah’s disarmament.
• He alleges a plan to expel South Lebanon’s Shia population as a step toward annexation.
• Despite a US- and Saudi-aligned government, Wakim says Lebanon’s Shia, Sunni, and Christian communities broadly support the resistance.
• A NATO summit in Ankara reportedly offered Turkey a Central Asian role in exchange for support against Iran and for Ukraine.
• Wakim predicts Trump will hold off restarting the Iran war until after the November midterms to avoid an election-season oil price spike.
• He frames Russia, China, and Iran as forming a ‘Eurasian’ strategic alignment built on complementary economic, geopolitical, and military roles.

About Professor Jamal Wakim

Professor Jamal Wakim is a historian and geopolitical analyst at the Lebanese University in Beirut, where his work focuses on the political history and strategic dynamics of the Levant and the broader Middle East. He is a returning guest on the Kianistan Podcast, having previously joined host Tafhim Kiani to discuss regional affairs.

Wakim’s analysis draws on a deep historical grounding in the region’s colonial and post-colonial history, which he uses throughout this conversation to contextualize present-day conflicts in Lebanon, Yemen, and beyond.

• Lebanese and Levantine political history
• Hezbollah and regional resistance movements
• Gulf and Middle East geopolitical strategy
• Great-power alignment in the Middle East and Central Asia

About Kianistan Podcast

The Kianistan Podcast is a geopolitics interview show hosted by Tafhim Kiani, dedicated to unpacking the Middle East’s most consequential conflicts through conversations with historians, journalists, and regional analysts who bring genuine depth to the table.

Professor Jamal Wakim’s return to the show continues a recurring dialogue about Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the shifting balance of power across the Levant, giving listeners a historically grounded lens on events that are still unfolding.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Jamal Wakim say Israel’s goal is in Lebanon?

Wakim argues Israel is using the Iran-US war as cover to pursue the disarmament of Hezbollah and a broader plan to redraw the map of the Levant through balkanization.

What plan does Wakim allege regarding South Lebanon?

He describes what he characterizes as a plan to expel the Shia population of South Lebanon as a precursor to annexation.

Does Wakim think Lebanon’s population supports the resistance?

Yes — he argues that despite a government leadership aligned with the US and Saudi Arabia, Lebanon’s Shia, Sunni, and Christian communities broadly support the resistance.

When does Wakim predict the Iran-US war will resume in full?

He predicts Trump will wait until after the November midterm elections to restart the war, to avoid the domestic economic fallout of a pre-election oil price spike.

Conclusion

Professor Jamal Wakim’s return to the Kianistan Podcast delivers a historically grounded, unflinching look at what he sees as a coordinated campaign against Lebanon and Hezbollah, set against the backdrop of a wider Eurasian realignment involving Russia, China, and Iran.

Whether or not his predictions about a post-midterm resumption of the Iran-US war prove correct, this conversation offers listeners a sharp framework for understanding the forces converging on Lebanon in the months ahead.

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