Is Donald Trump really the anti-interventionist president his base believes he is, or is his foreign policy still being quietly steered by the same lobby that has shaped Washington’s approach to the Middle East for decades? On this episode of the Kianistan Podcast, host Tafhim Kiani sits down with Scott Horton, editorial director of Antiwar.com and one of America’s most prominent libertarian, anti-war voices, for a sharp-eyed look at what is actually driving Trump’s second-term foreign policy.

Horton, who has spent more than two decades documenting the machinery of US intervention abroad, walks through the surprisingly tangled recent history of the Iran nuclear file, from the original 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action through Trump’s own withdrawal from it in his first term, and into the renewed negotiations now underway. He argues that despite Trump’s rhetorical instinct to avoid new wars, the gravitational pull of hawkish advisors and the institutional power of the Israel lobby keep dragging American policy back toward confrontation.

A central thread of the conversation is the abrupt firing of national security advisor Michael Waltz, which Horton connects to allegations that Waltz was running an unauthorized back-channel with Israeli officials that undercut the administration’s own negotiating position with Tehran. For Horton, the episode is a case study in how difficult it is for any US president, however skeptical of foreign entanglements, to fully control his own foreign policy apparatus.

The discussion closes with Horton’s assessment of where the enrichment debate stands, why Iran is unlikely to accept a zero-enrichment deal, and what a realistic off-ramp from decades of confrontation might actually look like.

Key Topics Discussed

The Original Iran Nuclear Deal and Trump’s Withdrawal

Horton traces the story back to the 2015 JCPOA, the multilateral agreement that placed strict, verified limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, and Trump’s controversial 2018 decision to unilaterally withdraw the United States from it.

• Why the JCPOA is widely regarded as one of the most successful nonproliferation agreements in recent history
• Trump’s first-term decision to exit the deal despite IAEA verification of Iranian compliance
• How the ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions campaign that followed failed to produce a better deal
• Iran’s gradual resumption of higher-level enrichment as a direct response to the US withdrawal

The Renewed Negotiations and the Enrichment Sticking Point

Horton unpacks the current round of talks between Washington and Tehran, and why the question of domestic uranium enrichment remains the single hardest issue to resolve.

• Iran’s long-standing insistence on its right to enrich uranium under the Non-Proliferation Treaty
• Why a zero-enrichment demand is, in Horton’s view, a non-starter for any Iranian government
• The gap between hawkish demands for full dismantlement and what a verifiable, workable deal actually requires
• Comparisons to the original JCPOA framework as a template for a renewed agreement

The Israel Lobby’s Influence on US Iran Policy

A major focus of the conversation is Horton’s analysis of how organizations like AIPAC shape the boundaries of acceptable Iran policy in Washington, regardless of which party controls the White House.

• How AIPAC and allied groups lobby Congress to keep sanctions and pressure on Iran in place
• The lobby’s long-standing preference for regime change over negotiated settlement
• Why many members of Congress feel political pressure to take a hardline public stance on Iran
• The disconnect between the lobby’s preferred policy and broader American public opinion

Michael Waltz and the Back-Channel Controversy

Horton details the circumstances surrounding national security advisor Michael Waltz’s dismissal, framing it as a revealing episode about competing power centers inside the Trump administration.

• Allegations that Waltz maintained an unauthorized channel of communication with Israeli officials
• How that back-channel is alleged to have undermined the administration’s official negotiating posture with Iran
• What Waltz’s removal signals about internal disagreements over Iran strategy
• The broader pattern of hawkish officials attempting to constrain presidential flexibility on Iran

Trump’s Instincts Versus His Advisors

Horton offers a nuanced read of Trump himself, arguing that his personal instinct to avoid new Middle Eastern wars is real but consistently in tension with the hawkish figures around him.

• Trump’s repeated public statements about not wanting ‘endless wars’
• The influence of hawkish cabinet and advisory figures who favor a harder line
• How institutional and lobbying pressure narrows the range of politically viable options for any president
• Horton’s assessment of whether Trump can ultimately deliver a negotiated deal with Iran

Lessons From Two Decades of US Middle East Intervention

Drawing on his long career chronicling US foreign policy, Horton situates the current Iran standoff within the broader pattern of American intervention across the region since the early 2000s.

• Parallels between the run-up to the Iraq War and current rhetoric on Iran
• The costs, in both blood and treasure, of two decades of regional intervention
• Why Horton believes diplomacy, not pressure, is the only realistic path to a stable outcome
• What a genuinely restrained, non-interventionist US foreign policy would look like in practice

Major Takeaways

• The 2015 JCPOA placed verified limits on Iran’s nuclear program, and Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from it triggered the current standoff.
• A zero-enrichment demand is unlikely to produce a deal, since Iran regards domestic enrichment as a sovereign right under the NPT.
• The Israel lobby, led by groups like AIPAC, continues to shape the boundaries of acceptable US policy toward Iran.
• Michael Waltz’s firing is linked to allegations of an unauthorized back-channel with Israeli officials that undercut US negotiating leverage.
• Trump’s personal instinct against new wars is frequently in tension with hawkish advisors and institutional pressure.
• Horton argues that sustained diplomacy, not renewed pressure campaigns, offers the only realistic route to a stable US-Iran relationship.

About Scott Horton

Scott Horton is the editorial director of Antiwar.com and host of The Scott Horton Show, where he has interviewed thousands of journalists, scholars, and policy experts on US foreign policy since 2003. He is a leading voice in the libertarian anti-war movement and the author of “Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan” and “Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism.”

Horton’s work focuses on holding US foreign policy to account through detailed historical and legal analysis, with a particular emphasis on the Middle East, sanctions policy, and the domestic political forces that shape American military interventions abroad.

• US-Iran relations and nuclear diplomacy
• The domestic politics of American foreign policy
• The history and costs of post-9/11 interventionism
• Sanctions policy and its humanitarian consequences

About Kianistan Podcast

Kianistan Podcast is a geopolitics and international affairs interview show hosted by Tafhim Kiani, dedicated to unpacking the forces shaping global politics through candid, long-form conversations with journalists, scholars, and policy analysts from across the political spectrum.

Rather than settling for surface-level headlines, the show digs into the historical context, competing interests, and often-overlooked perspectives behind today’s major international stories, giving listeners the background they need to form their own informed views.

Each episode aims to bring together voices that are too often left out of mainstream coverage, offering a space for rigorous, good-faith debate on the most consequential questions in world affairs.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Trump withdraw from the original Iran nuclear deal?

Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in 2018 despite IAEA verification of Iranian compliance, arguing the deal was insufficiently strict on issues like missile development and sunset clauses on enrichment limits.

What is the main obstacle in the current US-Iran nuclear talks?

According to Scott Horton, the central sticking point is domestic uranium enrichment, since Iran insists on retaining the right to enrich under the Non-Proliferation Treaty while hawkish voices in Washington push for a zero-enrichment outcome.

Why was Michael Waltz removed as national security advisor?

Waltz’s removal has been linked to allegations that he ran an unauthorized back-channel with Israeli officials that undermined the administration’s official negotiating position with Iran.

Does Scott Horton believe Trump wants to avoid war with Iran?

Horton believes Trump has a genuine personal instinct against new Middle Eastern wars, but argues that instinct is consistently challenged by hawkish advisors and the institutional influence of the Israel lobby.

Conclusion

Scott Horton’s conversation on Kianistan Podcast offers a clear-eyed reminder that US foreign policy is rarely the product of a single actor’s intentions, but rather the outcome of competing pressures, lobbies, and institutional interests pulling in different directions.

Whether the renewed Iran talks ultimately produce a durable agreement or collapse back into confrontation will depend as much on these internal Washington battles as on anything happening in Tehran, making Horton’s insider’s-eye analysis essential listening for anyone trying to understand where US-Iran relations go from here.

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