Is the United States acting through Israel, or has Israel become powerful enough to drag Washington wherever it wants to go? And why does strategic advisor Ali Borhani believe Gulf sovereign wealth funds could become “easy prey” for an American empire desperate for capital within the next 18 months?

Ali Borhani, managing director of 360 Strategic Advisors and author of the Substack newsletter Futurely, joins host Tafhim Kiani for a geoeconomic tour through the region’s most consequential recent events. Rahani, who also co-hosts the Belt and Road-focused BRI Dialogues podcast with Durham University, brings a distinctive lens that blends geopolitics with financial and investment analysis.

The conversation opens with the shockwaves from Israel’s strike on Doha and what it reveals about the true value of Gulf states’ massive investment in American military protection. Rahani then examines the Russia-Iran relationship, China’s deliberate restraint in the region, and closes with a sweeping assessment of the US-China technological rivalry and what it means for Taiwan’s future.

Key Topics Discussed

The Doha Strike and the Illusion of Protection

Borhani argues the Israeli attack on Qatar exposed the emptiness of Gulf states’ massive investment in American military relationships, given that billions in weapons purchases provided no actual protection.

He details the scale of this exposed vulnerability:

• Why it strains credulity that no US airspace or intelligence awareness was involved in the strike
• How Qatar’s hundreds of billions in US investment, including gifting Trump a $400 million jet, bought no security guarantee
• What this reveals about the difference between a fiscally strong superpower and a financially strained one

Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds as “Easy Prey”

Borhani offers a striking warning that desperate American fiscal conditions could make Gulf sovereign wealth increasingly vulnerable to seizure or coercion within the next twelve to eighteen months.

He explains the narrative groundwork he sees being laid for this possibility:

• How media narratives linking Qatar to Hamas funding could provide justification for future asset actions
• Why renewed talk of confiscating Saudi assets over September 11th connections signals a broader pattern
• What strategic options Gulf capitals actually have if their sovereign wealth becomes a target

Is Israel Wagging the Dog?

Borhani poses the central question of whether the United States is directing Israel’s actions or whether Israel has become the more powerful actor shaping American policy.

He explores the ambiguity at the heart of this dynamic:

• Why the pace and ferocity of Israeli strikes across multiple countries defies easy explanation
• How technology and intelligence-sharing risks mean even Gulf allies may not be immune to Israeli or American compromise
• What it would mean geopolitically if the US sought to fold Qatari gas reserves into its own energy dominance

Russia and Iran’s Complicated Alliance

Borhani characterizes the Russia-Iran relationship as a centuries-old “love and hate” dynamic that has grown closer under shared pressure but remains far from unconditional.

He details the structural tensions within this partnership:

• Why Iran opted out of the military clause in its strategic partnership agreement with Russia
• How the contested Zangezur corridor complicates the relationship further
• What role Russia’s own concern about a nuclear-armed neighbor plays in limiting the alliance’s scope

China’s Deliberate Non-Intervention

Borhani explains why China has avoided taking a more visible role in the Middle East despite its growing economic stakes in the region, including relations with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

He lays out the strategic doctrine behind this restraint:

• Why China deliberately avoids repeating the United States’ mistake of becoming a global policeman
• How China’s new global governance and security initiatives offer an alternative model of engagement
• What strategic patience, allowing rivals to self-harm, means for China’s long-term positioning

The US-China Tech Rivalry and Taiwan’s Future

The conversation closes with Borhani assessment of how the semiconductor race between the US and China will ultimately determine Taiwan’s strategic fate.

He explains the pivotal technological threshold to watch:

• Why Taiwan becomes a “real estate issue, not a technology issue” once China closes the semiconductor gap
• How China’s rare earth leverage complicates any US attempt to escalate technological restrictions
• What a fiscally strained United States realistically can and cannot sustain in a prolonged confrontation with China

Major Takeaways

• The Doha strike exposed the limits of Gulf states’ massive investment in American military protection
• Borhani warns Gulf sovereign wealth funds could become vulnerable to seizure within 12 to 18 months
• Whether the US directs Israel or is increasingly directed by it remains a genuinely open question
• Russia and Iran’s alliance remains structurally limited despite growing closer under shared pressure
• China’s restraint in the Middle East reflects deliberate strategic doctrine, not indifference
• Taiwan’s fate is increasingly tied to the outcome of the US-China semiconductor race

About Ali Borhani

Ali Borhani is managing director of 360 Strategic Advisors, providing growth and market-entry strategy for emerging markets, and author of the Substack newsletter Futurely. He co-hosts the BRI Dialogues podcast in partnership with Durham University, focused on China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

• Geoeconomic and geopolitical risk analysis
• Gulf state investment strategy and sovereign wealth funds
• China’s Belt and Road Initiative
• US-China strategic and technological competition

About Kianistan Podcast

Kianistan Podcast, hosted by Tafhim Kiani, values guests like Ali Rahani who bring a distinctly financial and investment-focused lens to geopolitical events that are usually analyzed purely in military or diplomatic terms. This conversation’s focus on Gulf sovereign wealth vulnerability and the true cost-benefit of American security guarantees exemplifies the show’s effort to give listeners a fuller picture of how money, not just missiles, shapes regional power. By connecting the Doha strike to broader questions about Taiwan and the US-China tech race, Kianistan continues to draw out the interconnected threads linking seemingly separate global stories.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Borhani believe Gulf sovereign wealth funds are at risk?

He points to narratives linking Qatar to Hamas funding and renewed talk of confiscating Saudi assets over September 11th connections as groundwork being laid for potential future action.

What does “Israel wagging the dog” mean in this context?

Borhani uses the phrase to question whether the US directs Israeli actions or whether Israel has become powerful enough to shape American policy in the region.

Why has China avoided a bigger role in Middle East diplomacy?

Borhani explains this reflects deliberate strategic doctrine, avoiding the overreach that ultimately weakened US global standing, rather than indifference to the region.

How is Taiwan’s future connected to the US-China tech rivalry?

Borhaniargues that once China closes the semiconductor technology gap, Taiwan shifts from being primarily a technology dispute to a more direct territorial issue.

Conclusion

Ali Rahani’s geoeconomic lens offers Kianistan listeners a valuable complement to more traditional military and diplomatic analysis, revealing how questions of capital, investment, and financial vulnerability shape the same events usually discussed purely in security terms. His warning about Gulf sovereign wealth funds and his sharp framing of the “wagging the dog” dynamic between the US and Israel provide genuinely fresh angles on familiar headlines.

As the region continues to absorb the shockwaves of the Doha strike, Rahani’s analysis reminds listeners that the true measure of power increasingly lies as much in balance sheets and supply chains as in military hardware.

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