Is the new Pakistan-Saudi defense pact a genuine realignment of Middle Eastern power, or a symptom of an American empire that can no longer control its own client, Israel? And why does a veteran of the US national security establishment believe there is an 80 percent chance of a second Israel-Iran war before Thanksgiving?

Colonel Larry Wilkerson, the retired US Army colonel and former chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, returns to the Kianistan Podcast for a wide-ranging conversation with host Tafhim Kiani covering three of the most urgent stories in West Asia. Wilkerson brings decades of insider experience in American foreign policy to bear on a region he says is being reshaped by the visible decline of US power.

The conversation opens with the historical roots and strategic logic of the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia mutual defense agreement, then turns to Wilkerson’s stark assessment that a second Israel-Iran war is highly likely within months, driven by Netanyahu’s political desperation. The episode closes with a blistering critique of Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan and Wilkerson’s own proposal for a federal Israel-Palestine confederation as a genuine alternative.

Key Topics Discussed

The Roots of the Pakistan-Saudi Defense Pact

Wilkerson traces the agreement back years before its formal signing, to Mohammed bin Salman’s early visits to Islamabad and a long-standing understanding between the two nations.

He details the historical threads that led to this moment:

• How MBS’s early financial commitments to Pakistan laid the groundwork for today’s pact
• Why the Israeli strike on Doha, Qatar accelerated a process already years in motion
• What the new Saudi-Iran rapprochement reveals about a broader regional realignment

China, Russia, and Iran’s Changing Position

Wilkerson describes a dramatic shift in how Iran’s traditional Arab rivals now relate to it, shaped by China’s Belt and Road expansion through the region.

He explains the deeper strategic currents at work:

• How China’s southern Belt and Road corridor through Chabahar threatens American strategic interests
• Why Russian training teams are now embedded with Iranian forces on air defense and fighter systems
• What this evolving alignment means for any future US or Israeli move against Iran

Turkey’s Pivotal, Uncertain Position

Wilkerson turns to Erdogan’s Turkey as a wildcard whose choice between East and West could reshape NATO’s southern flank.

He lays out the stakes of Turkey’s decision:

• Why Turkey’s land forces make it more militarily significant to NATO than most member states
• How Erdogan is weighing alignment with a rising East against continued NATO membership
• What Trump’s disinterest in European affairs means for Turkey’s calculus

Predicting a Second Israel-Iran War

Wilkerson states plainly that he believes there is an 80 percent chance of renewed war between Israel and Iran before Thanksgiving, driven by Netanyahu’s political survival instincts.

He explains the logic behind this stark prediction:

• Why Netanyahu’s personal and political peril pushes him toward escalation rather than restraint
• How Iran’s suspected acquisition of a rudimentary nuclear deterrent changes the calculus for both sides
• What role Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella could play if a wider war draws in Turkey or Saudi Arabia

Trump’s Gaza Peace Initiative

Wilkerson delivers a scathing assessment of Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan, dismissing it as a capitulation dressed up as diplomacy.

He details the plan’s core failures:

• Why Tony Blair’s involvement signals the plan’s colonial character to Wilkerson
• How Netanyahu privately undermined the agreement even as he publicly endorsed it
• What the absence of any Israeli withdrawal timeline reveals about the plan’s true intent

An Israel-Palestine Confederation as an Alternative

Wilkerson describes a federal confederation model he has spent two years war-gaming as a genuine long-term solution.

He explains how this alternative framework would function:

• How a third, federal government layer could gradually earn authority over both states
• Why this model addresses the two-state solution’s fundamental instability
• What lessons from years of simulation with former Israeli and Palestinian officials inform this proposal

Major Takeaways

• The Pakistan-Saudi defense pact is the product of years of quiet negotiation, not a sudden reaction to any single event
• China’s Belt and Road expansion through Iran is reshaping strategic alignments across the region
• Wilkerson assesses an 80 percent probability of renewed Israel-Iran war before Thanksgiving
• Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan, in Wilkerson’s view, secures Israeli objectives without genuine Palestinian concessions
• A federal Israel-Palestine confederation offers a more durable alternative to the traditional two-state framework
• Turkey’s strategic choice between East and West could prove decisive for the region’s future alignment

About Colonel Larry Wilkerson

Colonel Larry Wilkerson (US Army, retired) served as chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell and has become one of the most respected critical voices on US foreign policy, drawing on decades of experience inside the American national security establishment.

• US foreign policy and military strategy
• Middle East regional security dynamics
• Israel-Palestine conflict resolution frameworks
• Great power competition between the US, China, and Russia

About Kianistan Podcast

Kianistan Podcast, hosted by Tafhim Kiani, values returning guests like Colonel Wilkerson precisely because they allow listeners to track how a fast-moving region evolves over successive conversations. This episode’s sweep, from the historical roots of the Pakistan-Saudi pact to a concrete forecast of renewed Israel-Iran conflict, exemplifies the show’s commitment to connecting immediate headlines with the deeper structural forces driving them. By pairing sharp geopolitical analysis with genuinely constructive alternatives, like Wilkerson’s confederation proposal, Kianistan aims to give listeners more than commentary: a framework for understanding what could come next.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign a mutual defense pact?

Wilkerson traces it to years of quiet cooperation, accelerated by Israel’s strike on Doha and a broader Saudi push to diversify its security guarantees beyond the United States.

Does Wilkerson think another Israel-Iran war is likely?

Yes, he places the odds at roughly 80 percent before Thanksgiving, driven primarily by Netanyahu’s political and personal survival calculations.

What does Wilkerson think of Trump’s Gaza peace plan?

He is highly critical, arguing it secures Israeli objectives without a genuine Israeli withdrawal timeline or credible Palestinian self-governance.

What alternative does Wilkerson propose for Israel-Palestine?

A federal confederation model with a third governing layer over both states, gradually earning authority as both populations see it as non-threatening to their interests.

Conclusion

Colonel Wilkerson’s conversation offers listeners a rare combination of historical depth and blunt forecasting from someone who has operated at the highest levels of American foreign policy. His account of the Pakistan-Saudi pact’s origins, his stark warning about a second Israel-Iran war, and his critique of Trump’s Gaza plan together paint a picture of a region where old assumptions about American power are rapidly eroding.

Yet Wilkerson’s confederation proposal offers something rarer still in these conversations: a constructive path forward, grounded in years of careful simulation rather than wishful thinking. Listeners seeking both an unflinching diagnosis and a genuine prescription will find this episode essential.

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